Vanity metrics
All nice data of course and very interesting to use in an attempt to predict the election results. But one must be careful of so-called vanity metrics (which I also wrote about briefly in the article “e en les in B2B marketing: ga de verhaal aan “). In order to be able to make really reliable statements about elections and results, a good dose of data cleansing will first have to take place to prevent embarrassing metrics. For example, 82% of the Twitter followers of CDA party leader Sybrand van Haersma Buma turned out to be fake. In that respect, the Netherlands and the US are 1-1, because Romney also suddenly turned out to have more than 135,000 new followers in one weekend; largely fake accounts.
Obama cupcakesOffline, politics also seems to provide many social events. In America canada telegram data for example, it is not at all strange for a complete stranger, or even a Dutch person, to join someone's home for a presidential debate watching party . A debate party? Yes. During election time, people organize gatherings at home where the debate is watched and everyone is welcome. I imagine it a bit like a football match where everyone wears the shirt of their favorite team, and then debates in front of the TV while enjoying beer and chips.
Trend predictions
Finally, a number of trend predictions for the next elections. Ton Baetens does not see Facebook becoming a strong platform for politicians in the Netherlands, like Twitter is. Partly because the interaction and dynamics that are present on Twitter are missing on Facebook. David Nieborg thinks that predictive analysis will also play a role here in the Dutch elections of 2016, as a successor to fact checkers, the second screen and social media polls.
I myself will give a debate-watching party at the next election (according to the American example). And also according to the American example: bring your own snacks and drinks.
The next Social Media Club The Hague will take place on Tuesday 20 November in Igluu at the Louis Couperusplein in The Hague. You can register via the SMC070 LinkedIn Group .